Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 0.080036 0.092599 0.106925 0.124563 0.145820 0.170771 0.202504
2025-10-26 0.061573 0.076612 0.095356 0.120744 0.154717 0.199306 0.263439
2025-11-02 0.047811 0.063148 0.083733 0.113995 0.158423 0.223027 0.327516
2025-11-09 0.037216 0.051704 0.072425 0.105167 0.157446 0.241103 0.392743
2025-11-16 0.031112 0.045366 0.067046 0.103843 0.167840 0.281077 0.513534
2025-11-23 0.026288 0.040038 0.062156 0.102286 0.178022 0.326010 0.671277
2025-11-30 0.022874 0.036305 0.059100 0.103250 0.193699 0.389567 0.914380
2025-12-07 0.020020 0.032989 0.056111 0.103718 0.209257 0.462336 1.245240
2025-12-14 0.017218 0.029279 0.051701 0.100372 0.216066 0.520524 1.600674
2025-12-21 0.014293 0.024878 0.045179 0.091048 0.206113 0.532047 1.826634
2025-12-28 0.012788 0.022904 0.043069 0.090978 0.219733 0.621462 2.484113
2026-01-04 0.011717 0.021601 0.042089 0.093358 0.241537 0.755193 3.599609
2026-01-11 0.010632 0.020135 0.040576 0.094336 0.261186 0.904600 5.215068
2026-01-18 0.009678 0.018796 0.039101 0.095103 0.281436 1.081554 7.657623
2026-01-25 0.008676 0.017203 0.036744 0.092839 0.290953 1.226549 10.546443
2026-02-01 0.007683 0.015489 0.033799 0.088103 0.289632 1.321803 13.552153
2026-02-08 0.007093 0.014601 0.032742 0.088841 0.310960 1.579795 20.863506
2026-02-15 0.006549 0.013742 0.031602 0.089043 0.330963 1.870007 32.363980
2026-02-22 0.006141 0.013150 0.031058 0.091123 0.361735 2.306115 55.740500
2026-03-01 0.005753 0.012549 0.030381 0.092586 0.391477 2.814277 98.050205
2026-03-08 0.005289 0.011698 0.028854 0.090514 0.401942 3.182228 152.974143
2026-03-15 0.004704 0.010472 0.026060 0.082898 0.377003 3.131475 178.561923
2026-03-22 0.004421 0.009990 0.025376 0.083356 0.400812 3.734795 331.489691